See the trends, conditions, and forecasts that are driving the fall beef industry in Florida and the rest of the country.
“We are in uncharted waters with this market,” shared Hannah Baker, the State Specialized Extension Agent for Beef and Forage Economics for UF/IFAS Extension, in a recent UF/IFAS blog. The piece looked at the trends, conditions, and forecasts that are affecting the fall beef industry in The Sunshine State and beyond. See the highlights below.
What’s Affecting the Fall Beef Industry
These are the conditions and trends that are affecting the fall beef industry, according to Baker:
The Season
Baker shared that the weather is cooling off in The Sunshine State; Baker maintained that “Thoughts about providing winter supplementation, grazing cool-season forages, and feeding hay are and should be on the forefront of producers’ minds in an effort to maintain body condition of cows. In the current market, an open cow means missing the opportunity of selling a high-priced calf.”
Drought
Baker shared that, though the rest of the state has had enough rain, “all of the Panhandle is experiencing abnormal and moderate drought conditions with some areas experiencing severe drought conditions on the FL/AL line (https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/). This is no doubt forcing producers to start feeding hay earlier and maybe even cull cows and sell calves early. While now is a great time to sell cattle with cull cows bringing around $1.50/lb and calves bringing well over $4.00/lb, I believe the industry would like to start rebuilding at some point. So, this spell of drought in the Southeast is certainly not helping or encouraging expansion efforts.”
High Prices
Baker maintained that, “Another circumstance that is not yet encouraging expansion is high prices, incentivizing producers to sell heifers rather than retaining and to wean/sell calves earlier. At this time of year, we typically see a dip in prices as the majority of spring-born calves are being sold. Across the country, calves have been sold earlier this year due to everyone anticipating that seasonal decline and trying to get ahead of it. In Florida, historical price data shows that we usually start experiencing that seasonal decline in July when weaning starts, lasting until November or December.”
She added that, “Prices for calves have steadily increased since July, rather than decreasing. Florida prices in September for 450-500-pound steer calves were 68% higher year-over-year. It is safe to say that this fall-run is unlike in previous years. This is not to say that there will not be a seasonal decline going into October or later in the year. There could or could not be. We are in uncharted waters with this market.”
She advised that the high demand for beef will continue to drive the industry.
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